How could it come so far?
A very recent and serious topic is the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which got more attention over the last few months. As many of us suppose, this conflict didn’t start just back then, it started years ago. But first, let’s take a look at some background information: In 1991, the Soviet Union (USSR) broke apart and Ukraine is on track to becoming an independent state. This was finally confirmed with the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, where they also made another bunch of agreements. They agreed, that Russia, the USA and Great Britain will protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the newborn Ukrainian country. In return, Ukraine renounces nuclear weapons. Three years later, Russia and the North Atlantic Defense Organisation (NATO, additionally commit to creating a stability and security space in and over Europe.
Until then everything seems fine and relaxed between the two parties. But in the following years more and more countries joined the NATO which led to certain tensions between Russia and the NATO. Russia thought the countries in the NATO and the EU are creating a militarism alliance against them. Russia felt threatened. Their argument was that it was promised to the Soviet Union that there won’t be a westward enlargement. In response, the NATO disagrees that there wasn’t a written document to prove it. Additionally, the successor states to the USSR are independent and so have a right to sovereignty and free alliance election. These tensions weren’t the only ones over the next few years. In 2007 the European Union and Ukraine were negotiating about an association agreement that should bring and involve the country more in economic and political actions in the West. Six years later, on the 21. November of 2013, the pro-Russian President of Ukraine Victor Yanukovych lets the association agreement with the EU fall through. Russian president Vladimir Putin saw this approach of Ukraine in the direction of the EU as a threat and a danger to become a part of the EU, so he put pressure on the Ukrainian government until they decline the proposal of the EU. President Putin also kind of “bribed” the Ukrainian government with subsidised gas prices and financial support in the background.
On the same day, there were protests against the pro-Russian government and the burst agreement with the EU. Therefore the Ukrainian government tries to dissolve these demonstrations and problems by force. A lot of people demonstrating died or got injured. One day after Yanukovych signs a contract with the opposition and the diplomats of the EU to resolve the crisis. The Russian envoy didn’t sign the contract. In the contract they commit to giving the presidents power to the parliament and that there will be a newly elected parliament in the coming months. On that very evening after the signature, Yanukovych flees to Russia. Shortly afterwards, an international arrest warrant was issued against him, but was stopped in 2015.5 days later, on Crimea, a Ukrainian island at the time, which is mostly populated by ethnic Russians, a fight comes up between supporters and opponents of the transitional government. One day later, Russian special forces occupy the peninsula, “to protect the lives of Russian compatriots”, as the Kremlin says. Therefore, Russian separatists hoist Russian flags in the Ukrainian cities Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv.
Sequently a referendum of Crimea joining Russia, the majority voted with yes. However, the EU declared the vote invalid, because it took place under Russian military control. Nevertheless, Russia annexes Crimea in violation of international law. After the annexation of Crimea, the conflict shifted to Donbas, which is basically the part of eastern Ukraine. In Luhansk, Donetsk and Kharkiv, Russian separatists storm government buildings and call out a “People’s Republic”. The separatists also held elections and referendums on the secession from Ukraine in Luhansk and Donetsk (Kharkiv was reoccupied by the Ukrainian Special Forces) in which the majority approved the secession. Russia recognises the referendum and counts them as valid, while the EU and the USA do not.
A few days afterwards, the pro-Western candidate Petra Poroshenko wins the presidential elections in Ukraine. He would be willing to talk with Russia. Accompanied by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande, Putin and Poroshenko are discussing a solution to the conflict. A Russian representative is to be sent to Ukraine. He should coordinate the first steps towards resolving the crisis. The Malaysia Airlines MH17 passenger plane flight gets shot down. 298 civilians die, The Kremlin denies the responsibility. An international commission of inquiry proves two years later that pro-Russian separatists with contacts with the Russian government were responsible for the shooting down.
In Minsk, Russia, Ukraine and the pro-Russian separatists agree on a ceasefire - Minsk I. However, the ceasefire does not hold. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) repeatedly reports combat operations and arms transports in eastern Ukraine. In 2015, after an escalation of violence at Donetsk Airport, a new agreement is being adopted under the Normandy format (Germany, France, Ukraine, Russia): Minsk II. The agreement pledges a ceasefire, removal of heavy weapons. New elections and a lot more to deescalate the conflict.
Four years later, Volodymyr Zelensky becomes the new president of Ukraine. In addition to domestic political reforms, it also promises an end to the fighting in eastern Ukraine. Shortly after that, there will be another meeting in the Normandie format, where they agree on a renewed ceasefire and prisoner exchange. Another two years later, in April 2021, in eastern Ukraine, battles between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian separatists are increasing again. Therefore Russia begins to pull together troops on the border with eastern Ukraine - according to the Ukrainian ambassador, about 90,000 soldiers. While Russia dictates combat exercises as the reason for troop movement, Ukraine and NATO see them as a possible preparation for an invasion. The new US President Joe Biden and the Russian president Vladimir Putin meet each other for the first time in Geneva, Switzerland. Everything was going great between them. Nevertheless, from November 2021, Russia will once again strengthen its troops on the Ukrainian border. According to the US government, 130,000 Russian soldiers and heavy artillery are to be stationed on the Ukrainian border in February 2022. The EU warns Russia against serious sanctions in the event of a military attack.
Russia publishes several demands with security guarantees to the 30 NATO states. NATO rejects most demands, but is willing to talk. The conflict is clearly intensifying. After several unsuccessful discussions, including in the NATO-Russia Council, many experts are worried about an upcoming war. A lot of them say that the risk of war hasn’t been as now for 30 years. Unlike Germany, Great Britain, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and the USA announce the supply of defensive weapons to Ukraine. The latter put 8,500 soldiers on alert. At the beginning of February, part of the US troops will be transferred to the Eastern European NATO countries. A little later, the Kremlin discusses arms deliveries to the separatists. The situation is tense. It seems like two big lions circling each other. Under the mediation of Germany with the new Chancellor Scholz and France, the parties to the conflict are negotiating for the first time since 2019 in Normandy format about defusing the situation.
American and European intelligence services warn that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent - Putin rejects attack plans as "provocative speculation.” On the 18th of February, the OSCE reports a huge increase in combat operations in eastern Ukraine. In one day alone, the OSCE reports over 1,500 ceasefire violations in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian army accuse each other of further escalating the situation.
On the 21st of February, Russia breaks the Minsk II agreement. As an immediate response, the EU-States, the USA and other countries enact several sanctions on Russia in energy, banking and finance, trade and economy and individuals and politicians. Apparently that doesn’t do anything and doesn’t change Putin's mind. So on the 24th of February 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin breaks international law and attacks Ukraine through various flanks.
This was kind of the pre-history of how it all led up to this war that we know unfortunately have. I hope, that it is now more understandable why and how the conflict escalated.
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